New 博彩平台推荐 research shows the number of farms globally will shrink in half as the size of the average existing farms doubles by the end of the 21st century, 对世界粮食系统构成重大风险.

今天发表在杂志上 自然的可持续性, the study is the first to track the number and size of farms year-over-year, 从20世纪60年代到2100年.

研究表明，即使是农村, farm-dependent communities in Africa and Asia will experience a drop in the number of operating farms.

“We see a turning point from widespread farm creation to widespread consolidation on a global level, and that's the future trajectory that humanity is currently on,” 齐亚Mehrabi, assistant professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder. “的 size of the farm and the number of farms that exist are associated with key environmental and social outcomes.”

评估全球农业状况, Mehrabi used data 来自美国N Food and Agricultural Organization on agricultural area, GDP per capita and rural population size of more than 180 countries to first reconstruct the evolution of farm numbers from 1969-2013 and then to project those numbers through 2100.

His analysis found that the number of farms around the world would drop from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million in 2100. 一个关键原因是:随着一个国家经济的增长, 更多的人迁移到城市地区, 使农村地区照料土地的人口减少.

一分耕耘，一分收获

A decline in the number of farms and an increase in farm size has been happening in the United States and Western Europe for decades. 的 最新数据 来自美国.S. Department of Agriculture indicates there were 200,000 fewer farms in 2022 than in 2007.

Mehrabi的 analysis found that a turning point from farm creation to widespread consolidation will begin to occur as early as 2050 in communities across Asia, 中东, 北非, 大洋洲, 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区. Sub-Saharan Africa will follow the same course later in the century, the research found.

It also shows that even if the total amount of farmland doesn't change across the globe in coming years, fewer people will own and farm what land there is available. 这种趋势可能会威胁到生物多样性 生物多样性保护 最重要的是.

“Larger farms typically have less biodiversity and more monocultures,Mehrabi说. “Smaller farms typically have more biodiversity and crop diversity, which makes them more resilient to pest outbreaks and climate shocks.”

And it’s not just biodiversity: Food supply is also at risk. Mehrabi的 先前的研究 shows the world’s smallest farms make up just 25% of the world’s agricultural land but harvest one-third of the world’s food.

此外, fewer farms mean fewer farmers who may carry with them valuable Indigenous knowledge dating back centuries. As farms consolidate, that knowledge is replaced by new technology and mechanisation.

建立多样化的食品组合

Just as a diverse investment portfolio performs better than one that is not diversified, having diversity in the world’s food source portfolio is beneficial in the long run, 说Mehrabi.

“If you’re investing in today’s food systems with around 600 million farms in the world, 你的投资组合很多样化,Mehrabi说. “如果一个农场受损, it’s likely the impact to your portfolio will be averaged out with the success of another. But if you decrease the number of farms and increase their size, the effect of that shock on your portfolio is going to increase. 你承担了更大的风险.”

的re are also upsides to the shift in corporate farm ownership: 的 paper points out that consolidation in farming can lead to improved labor productivity and economic growth with a larger workforce in non-farm employment and improved management systems.

农业整合的最大好处之一, Mehrabi说, 人们的经济机会改善了吗, and the ability to choose their own career path within our outside of the agricultural sector.

But those future farm workers may need more support as suicide rates in the agriculture industry are 按职业划分，在美国失业率最高的地区之一.S.

“目前, 博彩平台推荐有大约6亿个农场在养活全世界, 他们的肩膀承载着80亿人口,Mehrabi说. “By the end of the century, we’ll likely have half the number of farmers feeding even more people. We really need to think about how we can have the education and support systems in place to support those farmers."

通过提高对全球农业趋势的认识, Mehrabi hopes his analysis will lead  to policies that ensure 生物多样性保护, 保持气候适应能力, preserve Indigenous knowledge and provide incentives to improve the rural economy in countries around the world.